Deliverable D2.1.3 - Modelling of cascading Effects and efficient Response to Disaster spreading in Complex Networks
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Authors: K. Peters, L. Buzna, D. Helbing
Published in International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2008 - Vol. 4, No.1/2
In order to assess cascading effects in directed networks this paper presents a model for the dynamics of failure spreading. The model combines network nodes as active, bistable elements and delayed interactions along directed links. By means of simulations the dynamics behaviour for generic sample networks has been studied. Besides the evaluation of failure cascades, for which we observe a critical threshold for the undamped spreading of failures in a network we simulated the effect of different strategies for the management of spreading disasters.
Our recovery strategies are based on the assumption that the interaction structure of the challenged network remains unchanged, while additional resources for mitigation actions, improving the recovery capacities of system components, can be distributed over the network.
The simulations clearly demonstrate that the topology of a network is a crucial factor both for the behaviour under external disturbances as well as for the optimality of different strategies to cope with an evolving disaster. Our model may be used to improve disaster preparedness and anticipative disaster response management.